Barack Obama Explains his Opposition to the Troop Surge
Muqtada al-Sadr's ceasefire
There are many other examples from the following months, through until May, in fact, with similar results: the blog's proprietor, engram, a "liberal by some measures" who supposedly became curious after 9/11 (read: threw his lot in with Bush and his neocon cabal) posting nonsense disguised as fact, me knocking his argument down and then dealing with a few members of his cult-like fan club. My real goal was to engage engram in a debate directly, but what I found is that he didn't want a debate. In fact, he'd go out of his way to avoid responding to me altogether, even if it meant responding to other commenters and pretending that I hadn't shattered his original article to pieces. Finally, I got an admission of what I had known all along:
"No, I'm not going to argue with you. I often do have discussions with people who think like you do, and I've learned that it is just impossible to make any progress with them. I know that you think that I'm the one who is impervious to evidence, so we are at an impasse. Arguing is not going to get us anywhere."What's amusing about this is that the "professor" debates other readers - just not the ones that he thinks might actually make him look bad. A good example of that is here, where engram skewed evidence to support his agenda (which includes pretending that America's economy is doing just swell). An anonymous reader challenged him, and engram tried (and failed) to back himself up. Apparently having learned his lesson, he simply stopping trying to answer serious challenges even when pressed:
Engram, I hope you will engage the point I made in the last thread. It was, I believe, a valid criticism of your argument. If your belief in being open to evidence and discourse is more than a pose, I expect you will respond.Note also in that same discussion engram's demand that I limit the size of my comments after I discredited his entire article. Not too long after, one of my comments actually did get too far under his skin and he deleted it. So, I stopped. Of course, since I have my own blog now, I'm free to discredit engram and others who spout his rhetoric without having to worry about someone else deleting my comments.
Back Talk annoys me because engram is not just a typical war propagandist: he is a propagandist with an uncanny ability to make himself appear like an intellectual. For this reason, he needs to be seen for what he really is. If just one person reads what I post here and manages to see through his facade, then it will add to the satisfaction of discrediting him in the first place.
So as not to draw this post out too far, I'll start with a rather simple deconstruction of one of engram's most recent entries: a typical whinefest about liberal defeatism with a chorus of pro-war cheerleading. From the beginning of his article:
It seems to me that one issue that separates the left from the right on this issue is that, if you are on the right, you see nothing good -- nothing at all -- in America suffering a military defeat (either in Iraq or in Vietnam). If you are on the left, although you might patriotically prefer an American victory, you might also be able to see at least some good in our powerful military being defeated.This is classic engram propaganda: draw a false dichotomy between the left and right and paint the left as less patriotic by default. By making a base like this that's supposed to sound reasonable, he builds himself a platform from which to push on his readers the idea he really wants to convey: that liberals are defeatists.
Furthermore, engram routinely tries to lure his readers in by building the foundation for his arguments with utter fallacy, such as this:
The conditions that caused Harry Reid and the editors of the New York Times to declare that this war is lost have been reversed. I wonder if they are starting to think that this war is won? I am.Of course he limits his qualification to what Harry Reid and the Times were upset about: which is that violence was sky-high in 2006. He doesn't want to talk about the things that Middle Eastern experts, intelligence experts or political scientists were upset about, which is that political conditions, such as the refusal of Iraqi Sunni and Shia to even sit in the same Parliament together, the lack of support for the central government among Iraqis and favor of the likes of Muqtada al-Sadr as well Iran's massive influence are the reason that the war is lost and has been for some time now.
Nor is Engram particularly interested in reality regarding al-Qaeda, as this blatant lie demonstrates:
Al Qaeda has not been operating in Afghanistan for many years. They've been in Iraq instead.This assertion is so utterly incompatible with the facts that even by engram standards it is shocking. Here is the reality of the situation:
As I have tirelessly pointed out on my blog, Osama bin Laden long ago diverted his suicide bombers away from Afghanistan to fight the Americans in Iraq (note the year of publication).
AFGHANISTAN: NEW APPROACHES NEEDED TO DEFEAT INSURGENCY - EXPERTS
Hoffman began by observing that "the lawless border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has, I think, become really America’s most acute foreign-policy challenge, even more so than Iraq." He noted that, "every single major Al-Qaeda plot or attack since 2004 has emanated from precisely that area," referring to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.There is plenty appearing regularly in the news regarding concern over al-Qaeda's role in Afghanistan, which is largely administered from the safe haven it established in 2001 after the botched invasion of Afghanistan. So the idea that al-Qaeda has been exclusively in Iraq (where the vast majority of its organization is/was comprised of native Iraqis) and not present in Afghanistan is simply nonsense. The reality is that the major elements of al-Qaeda have actually managed to operate relatively unscathed in the Afghanistan/Pakistan border area, and that the Iraq-centric policy of the Bush administration has failed to diminish their capabilities. Just last week the Department of Defense contracted a study highlighting all of this:
A terrorism study prepared for the Defense Department has some bad news for the Bush administration—and presents a sizable challenge for whoever is next in the Oval Office.The current strategy for defeating al Qaeda has not been successful in diminishing the group's capabilities and is unlikely to do better without a shift in emphasis, the Rand Corp. study concludes.
The article goes on to explain why this is the case, which I won't discuss right now, but the point is that people need not dig very far to see that what engram is trying to push on his readers is simply bullshit of the lowest order. It is my hope that more people take it upon themselves to make sure that uninitiated readers aren't fooled by it.
This is merely the first in what I intend to make a series of articles debunking the lies and rhetoric of those who support the failed policies of neoconservatives and their ilk. Engram is merely a drop in the bucket but he is a good starting point nonetheless.
24 comments:
Warpoet,
Good for you! I read your entry, but I didn't find any reference to attacks in Afghanistan attributable to al Qaeda (in stark contrast to dozens and dozens of suicide bomb attacks attributable to al Qaeda in Iraq). Instead, you followed the standard Barack Obama deception by citing an article that referred to al Qaeda's leaders being near the Afghanistan/Pakistan border. Don't you get that trick yet? The leaders are near the border, but they are in Pakistan, and that's why sending troops to Afghanistan won't help (unless they are ordered to invade Pakistan).
To show that al Qaeda is active in Afghanistan, find an article that attributes any significant attack in that country to them between 2003 and 2007. Why is that impossible to do? And why is it so easy to do if we change the country to Iraq?
It's not impossible to do at all:
June 2003:
Al-Qaeda 'link' to bus bomb
A suspected suicide car bomber blew up a bus full of German soldiers in Kabul today, killing four, and German Defence Minister Peter Struck said there were indications the al-Qaeda network was involved.
Struck told ZDF television he had received information from his Afghan counterpart Mohammed Fahim that the al-Qaeda terror network may have been behind the worst attack on peacekeepers in Afghanistan that also injured another 29 German soldiers.
"My Afghan colleague told me in a telephone call there are indications that al-Qaeda is behind it," Struck said.
September 2004:
Afghan Vice President Survives Bomb Attack
Officials said Shahrani and other cabinet members were traveling between Kunduz and Takhar provinces when a remote-controlled explosion struck their convoy. They blamed al Qaeda-linked forces for the attack, which occurred in a relatively peaceful region that was the first to begin formally disarming Islamic militias last October.
November 2005:
Police blame al-Qaeda for NATO attacks in Afghanistan
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Police Tuesday blamed al-Qaeda for twin suicide bombings against NATO peacekeepers in the Afghan capital. The death toll rose to eight after more bodies were found in a ditch, and security forces searched houses for more suspected attackers.
...
Police commander Gen. Mohammed Akbar said "only al-Qaeda has the capability" to pull off such a coordinated attack.
"al-Qaeda is definitely behind this," he told The Associated Press.
April 2006:
Pakistan Says It Killed Man Tied to Al Qaeda Attacks
According to the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Web site, Mr. Atwa is an Egyptian, aged 41, of medium build, "believed to currently be in Afghanistan." He is named with 13 of the top Al Qaeda figures, "believed to be responsible for the bombings of U.S. embassies in Tanzanai and Kenya on August 7, 1998."
...
The officials said that information extracted from 19 militants captured in a successful ambush by Pakistani security forces on April 5 in the Shawal region of North Waziristan led them to Mr. Atwa. The militants had attacked a Pakistani security post killing four soldiers after returning from an operation inside Afghanistan.
The captured men told their interrogators that weapons for the attack in Afghanistan had come from Mr. Atwa.
February 2007:
Apparent al Qaeda video shows Afghan attack
(CNN) -- An al Qaeda video posted on Islamist Web sites Friday shows armed fighters meticulously planning and executing an operation against what they say are U.S. and Afghan forces at a checkpoint in southern Afghanistan.
CNN terror analyst Peter Bergen said the video appears to be shot in Zabul, deep in Taliban territory.
"It's quite unusual that al Qaeda would be operating so deep inside Afghanistan, which makes it interesting," he said.
US Senses a Rise in Activity by al-Qaeda in Afghanistan
Pentagon and military officials said the higher number of attacks and roadside bombings could be attributed to increased money for the insurgency from foreign sources and profits from domestic poppy production. The officials also attribute the increase in violence to the sanctuary provided in tribal areas of Pakistan that has allowed the Taliban and Al Qaeda to regroup.
That's from December - here's an article from just this May:
Al-Qaeda behind attack on Karzai, Spy chief says
KABUL (Reuters) - Al Qaeda in Pakistan was behind last week's assassination attempt on Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's intelligence chief said on Sunday.
So that's hardly what I'd call impossible, engram.
Furthermore, it's pretty obvious why you tried to add on the stipulation of an attack between 2003 and 2007 (which doesn't make any difference anyway): 2003 is when the Iraq war began and 2007 is when the "surge" which you seem to think is responsible for destroying al-Qaeda in Iraq went into effect.
Unfortunately, the claim you made was that "Al Qaeda has not been operating in Afghanistan for many years" - and that claim is unequivocally false. Al-qaeda has been operating in Afghanistan since before the Iraq debacle even started - it has operated unmolested right across the border, and its record of providing funds and supplies for Taliban fighters as well as direct involvement in violence is undeniable and acknowledged by just about everyone who doesn't have an agenda that requires them to claim otherwise.
Lets see we have been in Afghanistan for 8 years and you come up with 7 possible (not proven) examples where Al Qaeda may have been involved.
I suppose this is more evidence than zero, but to be honest it isn't much greater than that especially when you read into the details of each account you have given. It seems pretty obvious to me that all of these so called attacks by Al Qaeda could have been done by the Taliban. Where is the documented proof of Al Qaeda's involvement? In Iraq there is documented proof a plenty and Engram has documented only the tip of the iceberg of that on his blog.
BTW I think engram is using a bit of hyperboyle when he says Al Qaeda has done nothing in Afghanistan in the past 8 years. I think his point is that compared with What? they HAVE DONE in Iraq it is miniscule in comparison.
Come up with several dozen proven examples and then you will have a point.
"He noted that, "every single major Al-Qaeda plot or attack since 2004 has emanated from precisely that area," referring to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas."
I call BS, the majority of truly major Al-Qaeda plots or attacks since 2003 have taken place in Iraq and were no doubt planned there.
You also run into the problem here as Engram noted above about the center of gravity for Al Qaeda being much greater in Pakistan than Afghanistan.
From the AFGHANISTAN: NEW APPROACHES NEEDED TO DEFEAT INSURGENCY-EXPERTS link there is this nugget:
"At least some 14 different terrorist and insurgent groups based in Pakistan regularly cross the border to target Afghan security forces, US military forces, and NATO military units stationed there," Hoffman added.
Who is in control of the Afghan insurgency?
A) No one, they are 14 distinct groups in a common cause.
B) Everyone of them should be put under the banner Al Qaeda.
C) Everyone of them should be put under the banner of Taliban.
D) Other
From my own personal analysis A,C,and D would come before B.
Man your post is rich.
"...such as the refusal of Iraqi Sunni and Shia to even sit in the same Parliament together,"
I think the facts are that despite differences and the occasional "walk out" tactic that Sunni, Shia, and KURD have been sitting together in the same parliament. And it seems once those pesky upcomming elections are held that the bonds of unity will in all probability grow stronger not weaker.
"the lack of support for the central government among Iraqis"
You mean among the Sunni's. Support is pretty high amongst the Shia and Kurds. After all they were the ones who put the politicians who are in power, into power.
"and favor of the likes of Muqtada al-Sadr as well Iran's massive influence are the reason that the war is lost and has been for some time now."
Sadr appears to be a rapidly fading star and "Iran's massive influence" is an illusion. Hakim isn't in their back pocket and neither is Sistani.
Sorry!
"Al-Qaeda behind attack on Karzai, Spy chief says" Link
This just in from The Long War Journal:
"The failed but brazen assassination attempt against Afghan president Hamid Karzai in April was also credited to the Haqqani Network, although logistical help was provided by Hezb-i-Islami operatives and senior Afghan defense officials,"
Back for more, freedomnow?
Engram's challenge was for me to present a single attack in Afghanistan attributed to al-Qaeda. The evidence more than satisfies the demand - I don't need to go digging up dozens of articles just because you want me to. You are just shifting the goalpost after the kick.
"I call BS, the majority of truly major Al-Qaeda plots or attacks since 2003 have taken place in Iraq and were no doubt planned there."
Then produce the evidence.
"You also run into the problem here as Engram noted above about the center of gravity for Al Qaeda being much greater in Pakistan than Afghanistan."
That is not the point. The point is that they are using their safe haven in Pakistan to directly support the insurgency in Afghanistan. Furthermore, the evidence clearly shows that the current policy has not been successful in diminishing their capabilities.
"From my own personal analysis A,C,and D would come before B."
I'm not interested in your personal analysis, since really all it is is a combination of what you read at Long War Journal and Back Talk. No one said the entire insurgency was under the banner of al-Qaeda; the point is that they are there, contrary to engram's claim. So this is yet more goalpost shifting.
"Man your post is rich."
Then what are yours?
"I think the facts are that despite differences and the occasional "walk out" tactic that Sunni, Shia, and KURD have been sitting together in the same parliament."
This is laughable. The "occasional walk-out tactic"? The Sunni bloc has just rejoined the government after one year of being absent. Other blocs have withdrawn as well; this is a pattern functional democracies don't follow. Furthermore, when Parliament does sit down to vote they can't even get key legislation passed unless it's rewritten or bundled with bills that fit various parties' agendas.
So you are just spouting propaganda again, I'm afraid.
"And it seems once those pesky upcomming elections are held that the bonds of unity will in all probability grow stronger not weaker."
You mean like they did when al-Maliki tried (and failed) to eradicate the Jaish al-Mahdi in preparation for the elections? Surely you still feel the sting from when you last tried bombarding me with propaganda about that.
"You mean among the Sunni's. Support is pretty high amongst the Shia and Kurds. After all they were the ones who put the politicians who are in power, into power."
No, I mean just about everyone except the Kurds. Maliki, for instance, has a 40% approval rating.
"and favor of the likes of Muqtada al-Sadr as well Iran's massive influence are the reason that the war is lost and has been for some time now."
Sadr appears to be a rapidly fading star and "Iran's massive influence" is an illusion. Hakim isn't in their back pocket and neither is Sistani."
Iran's influence isn't an illusion at all - the only illusion is that of war propagandists like you who want to believe it doesn't exist.
I didn't say anything about Hakim or Sistani. No one need look further than the fact that Maliki had to negotiate a ceasefire with al-Sadr through Iran to see the extent to which Iran influences events in Iraq.
"Sorry!"
For what? Throwing what-you-wish propaganda at me in place of facts? I'm capable of dealing with just as I did last time you tried it.
"This just in from The Long War Journal:"
I stopped reading right there. Find a better source than Long War Journal. You copied and pasted just about your entire argument from there last time - if you want to debate this with me then you'll need to do better.
"Then produce the evidence"
If you are as informed as you say why should I have to produce evidence when there is literally reams of it.
Starting with the UN bombing in Iraq in 2003
Google: "Iraq un headquarters bombing al qaeda"
If you are as informed as you say than you should know that almost all if not all suicide bomber attacks in Iraq have been carried out by Al Qaeda (Usually by foreigners)
go here: http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/biggest-bombs/
That is a minimum of 24 major attacks by Al Qaeda undoubtably more of the 49 major attacks were by Al Qaeda.
The attack with the single biggest loss of life since 9/11 is the bombing of the Yasidi's in Iraq which was an Al Qaeda operation.
"You are just shifting the goalpost after the kick."
Are you really impressed with yourself when you kicked a 5 yard field goal through a 100yard wide goal post.
I shifted the goal posts to a much more difficult 75 yard field goal through regulation posts.
You can't make this field goal because the evidence for it isn't there but you probably already know that.
You are just quibbling over minor details. engrams point that Al Qaeda has been far more commited to Iraq than Afghanistan in the past 5 years is a fact. Why you want to challenge this analysis is beyond me because any informed person knows you lose.
BTW I go by What? and I only post occasionally at Back Talk.
I am not "freedomnow"
"No, I mean just about everyone except the Kurds. Maliki, for instance, has a 40% approval rating."
How about some proof of a recent Maliki and governement of Iraq approval poll. I couldn't find any. And I looked for a fair enough amount of time.
"I stopped reading right there. Find a better source than Long War Journal."
What is wrong with The Long War Journal? Do you have information that they have been mistaken in their reporting? If not, than What? is the basis of this challenge.
I also would like to know what "sources" on the internet you believe are more credible about Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan than The Long War Journal.
"If you are as informed as you say why should I have to produce evidence when there is literally reams of it."
Because it was your claim and you were supposedly calling "BS" on someone else's claim.
"The attack with the single biggest loss of life since 9/11 is the bombing of the Yasidi's in Iraq which was an Al Qaeda operation."
No one said anything about loss of life.
BTW, your attempt at backing your claim up was half-assed at best. This is what you should have shown me:
A study conducted by Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank, research fellows at the Center on Law and Security at the NYU School of Law, found that there was a 607 percent rise in the average yearly incidence of attacks (28.3 attacks per year before and 199.8 after) since the Iraq invasion. When Iraq and Afghanistan, which together account for 80 percent of attacks and 67 percent of fatalities, were excluded, there was still a 35 percent per year increase in the number of jihadist terrorist attacks.
If you check the map included in that link you will see that AQ was potentially involved with 130 attacks killing 1,400 people in Afghanistan and 200 killing 2,000 in Iraq. The problem is that both of those countries have active American forces in them. Experts are generally more concerned with things like international terrorism, which has next to nothing to do with al-Qaeda in Iraq because most of al-Qaeda's leadership is in Pakistan.
Got it?
"Are you really impressed with yourself when you kicked a 5 yard field goal through a 100yard wide goal post."
I didn't say I was impressed with it. I didn't set the goalpost; the person who you're here to run interference for did that.
"You can't make this field goal because the evidence for it isn't there but you probably already know that."
The evidence is there. Al-qaeda is active in Afghanistan to the point where, as the CAP/RAND study notes, it's nearly impossible to distinguish them from the Taliban. That's because, even though there is less coalition activity in Afghanistan, Afghanistan is right next door to Al-Qaeda's base of operations, unlike Iraq which has an "al-Qaeda" made up mostly of native Sunni Iraqis.
"I am not "freedomnow""
My mistake then - you're both about as interesting to talk to.
"How about some proof of a recent Maliki and governement of Iraq approval poll. I couldn't find any. And I looked for a fair enough amount of time."
Obviously, since the only resources you appear to use are war cheerleading websites. You'd never allow yourself to be exposed to the opinions of most Iraqis. I, however, do
Q15 Thinking of the current national government of Iraq, how do you feel about the way in which it has carried out its responsibilities? Has it done a very good job, quite a good job, quite a bad job, or a very bad job?
Mar08 %
Very Good job 13
Quite a Good Job 30
Quite a Bad Job 30
Very Bad Job 26
Q16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nouri Kamel al-Maliki is handling his job as prime minister?
Mar08 %
Approve 40
Disapprove 58
So that would be yet another one of your assertions discredited and thrown out the window, friend. Rest assured that more will be joining them should you choose to continue the song and dance that you've begun here.
"You are just quibbling over minor details. engrams point that Al Qaeda has been far more commited to Iraq than Afghanistan in the past 5 years is a fact. Why you want to challenge this analysis is beyond me because any informed person knows you lose."
"Quibbling over minor details" says the man who launches propaganda at me and ignores the facts about al-Qaeda really being in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the war which he comes here to glory in actually increasing violence in the world and failing to diminish their abilities in the first place. The only thing I've lost to you is my time; if you think anyone is stupid enough to believe otherwise then you're even more clueless than I suspected.
"If you check the map included in that link you will see that AQ was potentially involved with 130 attacks killing 1,400 people in Afghanistan and 200 killing 2,000 in Iraq."
In the case of Iraq you have 200 confirmed Al Qaeda attacks. In Afghanistan you have 130 suicide attacks. Above where you find the Afghanistan information from the map you find this: "The insurgency is made up of numerous factions including the Taliban- the strongest element- and Al Qaeda. It is difficult if not impossible to disaggregate the Al Qaeda attacks from the other insurgent attacks."
So Al Qaeda could have been involved in all 130 (doubtful) or 0 (doubtful). Your argument is predicated on facts that are confused and unknown. How does that constitute proof? Engram argues from facts that have no such taint.
That Iraqi opinion poll was quite interesting (I obviously had not seen it), but it was taken in Feb of this year. Obviously that is 5 months ago and a lot has happened since then in a positive direction for the GOI. I wonder What? the numbers will look like when a new poll comes out. The Maliki and GOI approval ratings compare quite favorably to the US President and US congress' current approval ratings.
To bad the Iraqi people can't have the good ole days when their government approval ratings were 100%.
"The attack with the single biggest loss of life since 9/11 is the bombing of the Yasidi's in Iraq which was an Al Qaeda operation."
You said:
"No one said anything about loss of life."
This was the disputed quote: "every single major Al-Qaeda plot or attack since 2004 has emanated from precisely that area," referring to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas."
The biggest plot or attack of them all was on the Yasidi's and that didn't emanate from FATA. My link referenced at least 27 Al Qaeda attacks in Iraq that killed at least 45 people in a single attack. I would think the more people killed the more "major" the plot and attack. DUH!
Also what about the attack at the hotel in Jordan, yet another major Al Qaeda plot that originated in Iraq, not the FATA.
Your referenced experts were not speaking the truth, which is a direct mark against their credibility. Something that you hypocritically want to hang engram for even though engram was speaking with hyperbolic language.
"So Al Qaeda could have been involved in all 130 (doubtful) or 0 (doubtful). Your argument is predicated on facts that are confused and unknown. How does that constitute proof? Engram argues from facts that have no such taint."
Again you fail. There was no "taint" in the facts. I said AQ was "potentially involved" in the Afghanistan attacks. As the study notes, it's impossible to credit al-Qaeda with the attacks but because their involvement there is so extensive it's similarly impossible to discount it. So engram's assertion is still false.
"That Iraqi opinion poll was quite interesting (I obviously had not seen it), but it was taken in Feb of this year. Obviously that is 5 months ago and a lot has happened since then in a positive direction for the GOI. I wonder What? the numbers will look like when a new poll comes out. The Maliki and GOI approval ratings compare quite favorably to the US President and US congress' current approval ratings."
It doesn't matter if they compare favorably to the US government's. They're the ones responsible for all this, remember? The point is that the majority of Iraqis don't support the current government (certainly not Maliki anyway), which is only in place because of laughable attempts at elections in which entire parties have refused to participate, and after the Basra debacle in which Maliki had to bow down to Tehran to get a ceasefire with al-Sadr rather than destroy the JAM like he said he was going to there's no reason to believe that that's about to change.
"To bad the Iraqi people can't have the good ole days when their government approval ratings were 100%."
There are many Iraqis who would prefer those days.
"The biggest plot or attack of them all was on the Yasidi's and that didn't emanate from FATA. My link referenced at least 27 Al Qaeda attacks in Iraq that killed at least 45 people in a single attack. I would think the more people killed the more "major" the plot and attack. DUH!"
Of course you would think that: you are an uninformed spectator pretending to play an intellectual ball game when in reality you're just pushing an agenda. If one wanted to deal with body counts they could just tally the total number of casualties inflicted, in which Iraq easily overshadows everything else, because of the massive American troop commitment there. Remove that factor and the whole thing becomes largely academic, since, as I pointed out to you already, AQI's infrastructure was and is primarily native Iraqis. Zarqawi's Jordan bombing is an interesting example but does not offset the fact that the Al-Qaeda that took down the Twin Towers (which Zarqawi was not a part of since he "joined" AQ only after the US invaded Iraq) has really been operating in Pakistan/Afghanistan and not Iraq. So your argument still gets you nowhere.
"Again you fail. There was no "taint" in the facts"
Sorry, the facts are tainted. Your statement "potentially involved" is tatamount to an admission of this taint.
"their involvement there is so extensive it's similarly impossible to discount it"
I don't know where you get the justification to make this statement. How "extensive" is Al Qaeda's involvement in Afghanistan? They are not the #1 group, that much is clear. They are not the #1 group in Pakistan either.
"The point is that the majority of Iraqis don't support the current government (certainly not Maliki anyway),"
I think you are confused. The poll asked about job performance not about levels of support or opposition to what was happening.
"after the Basra debacle in which Maliki had to bow down to Tehran to get a ceasefire with al-Sadr rather than destroy the JAM like he said he was going to there's no reason to believe that that's about to change."
This is an interesting reading of events in Basrah. Reports I have been hearing point to a clear victory for the GOI and a clear defeat for JAM.
"AQI's infrastructure was and is primarily native Iraqis."
You mean AQI had a lot of money at one point to bribe Iraqi's to do attacks in AQI's name. Now that the money has run out and AQI's leadership and hardcore followers, who were not Iraqi's BTW, have shown their true takfiri ways they have been roundly rejected by Iraqi's.
AQI is in serious danger of total collapse.
Still here?
"Sorry, the facts are tainted. Your statement "potentially involved" is tatamount to an admission of this taint."
It isn't tantamount to an admission of taint, it's an acknowledgment of something that the study and the map based off of it make abundantly clear: that it's impossible to know which attacks al-Qaeda is or is not involved with.
"I don't know where you get the justification to make this statement. How "extensive" is Al Qaeda's involvement in Afghanistan? They are not the #1 group, that much is clear. They are not the #1 group in Pakistan either."
I get the justification for it right here:
It is difficult, if not impossible to disaggregate the Al Qaeda attacks from other insurgent attacks.
Obviously AQ's involvement is extensive enough that the study fails to rule out their involvement in any of these attacks (suicide bombings, BTW, which are AQ's trademark). Were they merely some insignificant factor they would not have been mentioned.
"I think you are confused. The poll asked about job performance not about levels of support or opposition to what was happening."
No confusion here. Just amusement at your laughable attempt at spin. It was your claim that Maliki and the central government was high among everyone except the Sunnis, but then demanded that I go dig up the polling:
How about some proof of a recent Maliki and governement of Iraq approval poll.
Then when I provided a poll showing exactly that and you didn't like the numbers you tried this argument:
That Iraqi opinion poll was quite interesting (I obviously had not seen it), but it was taken in Feb of this year. Obviously that is 5 months ago and a lot has happened since then in a positive direction for the GOI.
Now that that has been shot down you simply shift the goalposts to some bullshit about the poll not actually measuring support when you yourself asked for approval ratings. You simply didn't like what you got and are now making yourself look even more foolish by trying to sidestep it.
"This is an interesting reading of events in Basrah. Reports I have been hearing point to a clear victory for the GOI and a clear defeat for JAM."
Reading where? The Long War Journal? Western observers have declared that the JAM broken and defeated a gazillion times - it keeps coming back like a bad rash (kind of like you). Maliki's own party split out from under him this June and now he's trying to appease his constituents by calling for US withdrawal. That to me is more significant than Western journalists praising his "victory." I am interested in what Iraqis themselves think.
"You mean AQI had a lot of money at one point to bribe Iraqi's to do attacks in AQI's name."
No, they had foreign fighters come in to carry out suicide attacks. That's about all they were used for.
"Now that the money has run out and AQI's leadership and hardcore followers, who were not Iraqi's BTW, have shown their true takfiri ways they have been roundly rejected by Iraqi's."
They were already being rejected by everyone except for the Sunnis themselves, who didn't share the same political goals as them anyway. Iraqis aren't stupid and are fully aware of how groups like AQI operate. They choose to ally or oppose them based on how politically opportune it is to do so.
"AQI is in serious danger of total collapse."
Indeed, but the rest al-Qaeda is not, and the argument that they are not in Afghanistan/Pakistan and are not taking advantage of the Bush administration's failure to pursue them collapsed before you even got here. You just haven't realized it yet.
BTW, why is it so hard for you to reply in a single comment? Why do you have to submit a new comment for every paragraph you reply to? Is it because you know you don't have a leg to stand and want to cherry pick what to respond to?
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